Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.003347 0.003675 0.004024 0.004426 0.004876 0.005365 0.005938
2026-01-11 0.002760 0.003212 0.003730 0.004368 0.005138 0.006043 0.007195
2026-01-18 0.002422 0.002930 0.003539 0.004328 0.005332 0.006579 0.008262
2026-01-25 0.002170 0.002706 0.003373 0.004270 0.005462 0.007011 0.009210
2026-02-01 0.002002 0.002563 0.003281 0.004283 0.005665 0.007534 0.010312
2026-02-08 0.001839 0.002407 0.003155 0.004229 0.005758 0.007904 0.011222
2026-02-15 0.001691 0.002257 0.003019 0.004142 0.005790 0.008177 0.012006
2026-02-22 0.001598 0.002173 0.002966 0.004163 0.005970 0.008673 0.013173
2026-03-01 0.001543 0.002137 0.002974 0.004270 0.006283 0.009392 0.014763
2026-03-08 0.001444 0.002030 0.002871 0.004201 0.006316 0.009672 0.015657
2026-03-15 0.001353 0.001929 0.002768 0.004121 0.006323 0.009904 0.016485
2026-03-22 0.001284 0.001855 0.002702 0.004093 0.006406 0.010265 0.017577
2026-03-29 0.001233 0.001807 0.002676 0.004132 0.006616 0.010881 0.019247
2026-04-05 0.001163 0.001727 0.002595 0.004079 0.006666 0.011226 0.020462
2026-04-12 0.001103 0.001660 0.002529 0.004042 0.006739 0.011617 0.021816
2026-04-19 0.001045 0.001591 0.002457 0.003989 0.006776 0.011941 0.023070
2026-04-26 0.001005 0.001549 0.002424 0.004001 0.006932 0.012503 0.024898
2026-05-03 0.000957 0.001490 0.002359 0.003951 0.006966 0.012828 0.026253
2026-05-10 0.000906 0.001425 0.002281 0.003871 0.006935 0.013020 0.027333
2026-05-17 0.000877 0.001394 0.002258 0.003890 0.007098 0.013622 0.029450
2026-05-24 0.000862 0.001387 0.002277 0.003988 0.007427 0.014608 0.032642
2026-05-31 0.000823 0.001335 0.002214 0.003925 0.007420 0.014866 0.034063
2026-06-07 0.000785 0.001283 0.002148 0.003851 0.007385 0.015059 0.035347